According to Jack Kyser, the Chief Economist for Los Angeles County Economic Development, we will know when prices have hit bottom when the number of home sales returns to what we consider normal for our market.
This may seem like profound information, but it has been the same since at least the early 1970's, which is as far back as my experience goes. Real estate is cyclical. Right now prices are still declining and the number of transactions is down. When the number of transactions increases, even slightly, for three months in a row, the market will be at the bottom of this cycle and will start to move back up. Politics and natural disasters also come into play, but overall the cycles remain fairly predictable.
